Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season
September Week 3 AoI: Central Caribbean Guess what? The NHC stole CMC's secret crack stash! They found this thing in the Central Caribbean, noticed that they're eyes were bleeding, and decided, "It must be a sign!" I don't get it, but there's this thing up on the TWO, but I would've declared it yesterday and took it down today. Something about 40 kt shear or whatever. I think they're cracking up, and yes, they are just stoned (I love that song; if you can guess what it is, then I will momentarily enjoy your presence). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 16:35, 16 September 2007 (UTC) :I disaggree. NHC says shear is weakening. I think it bears watching. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:25, 16 September 2007 (UTC) ::Of course it bears watching, otherwise I wouldn't have put it up, but I'm just saying that it'll only have a chance in a few days, because any development within the next few days would be extraordinarily unrealistic. And you didn't even READ the bit about the song, did you :P? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 18:00, 16 September 2007 (UTC) :::Didn't recognize the song. My personal favorite reference was when future Dean and future Erin formed at around the same time: "Send lawyers, guns and money; the sh!t has hit the fan." -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:48, 16 September 2007 (UTC) ::::That was a damn good quote. Whoever said that should get some sort of kickass-barnstar or something. Anyway, the reference was to Basket Case, which is acknowledged as one of the better punk songs. Vintage 1994, Green Day. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:00, 16 September 2007 (UTC) Looking very nice now! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:19, 16 September 2007 (UTC) :We gotta hold on, ready or not. We live for the models when it's all that we've got. Whoa! We're halfway there! WHOA! LIVIN' ON A PRAYER! 'Cyclone1(20:09 UTC -16/09/2007) ::Bad reference? ::This place is getting so boring it's turning into a forum. No wait, I mean- [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]]Talk 20:56, 16 September 2007 (UTC) :::Guess what? If this thing develops, it might merge with the AoI near Costa Rica, move into the gulf, and become as strong in terms of pressure as Ingrid! Some things predict the low pressure area of this thing to be the size of Alaska! If that happens, it could overpower Ingrid, and send it Fujiwhara-ing towards the Carolinas, while at the same time, assisting the Bermuda high in feeding it warm moisture! About half of the models predict something like this. If the low isn't that strong, it could still take Ingrid on a crash course towards New England. Could be a storm to watch. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:33, 16 September 2007 (UTC) ::::PASS THE BONG!!! By the way IP, Warren Zevon came up with that line I gave you several posts ago. Sorry, I don't think you'll be able to give him his barnstar; he's dead :( His lyrics were insane but they were brilliant. He's a fine example of how fine the line is between genius and insanity. Astro, I don't know what you just said there but it hurt my head. I lost you at Fujiwara going to Carolina. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:38, 16 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Um, we didn't really need to know about your bong. What I meant was, if the low develops, it will send warm air from the south towards Ingrid. The bermuda high is doing the same thing, drawing air from the south. If the low doesn't have enough energy to draw Ingrid around it and northwest, it could go north and hit New England. What does bong have to do with this? Nah, I don't wanna know :P . 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:52, 16 September 2007 (UTC) You see, he saw your post, and naturally assumed that you had a... Nevermind. And I know that some dead rock star, you give him a pet nickname of Warren Zevon, came up with that quote, but I was talking about the person who quoted him. It was either you or Cyclone1, but I'm thinking you. Ooh, that's a great Chuck Norris fact: Chuck Norris has a barnstar named after him on Wikipedia - that's given out for kicking ass. This system still looks big, but I'm not so sure what big's supposed to do. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:01, 17 September 2007 (UTC) :Astro, I said 'pass the bong' because I wanted you to quit smoking it, with all that craziness about a little disturbance growing and slinging Ingrid at the Carolinas as a somehow stronger storm. What? IP, I only wish I had come up with that quote. The song's on here; track #8. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:31, 17 September 2007 (UTC) ::You're still not getting it, someone here quoted him on that, so one of you said it, but didn't come up with it. Get it? This thing's dead by the way. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 10:34, 17 September 2007 (UTC) :::I've quoted it once before on this forum and I agree, this storm is dead. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:21, 17 September 2007 (UTC) AoI - East Atlantic; North of Lesser Antilles It's looking pretty good actually. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 18:59, 17 September 2007 (UTC) :Oooh, not bad, looks pretty organized too. Perhaps some help from the remnants of Ingrid? - Enzo Aquarius 14:56, 18 September 2007 (UTC) ::Merging with remnants of Ingrid and creating large area of convection. Not likely to regenerate Ingrid, but there is potential. By the way, if Ingrid reforms , since it has merged with another system, I believe it should not be called Ingrid, because that would suggest the system remained separate, when in fact it was absorbed. Thoughts (on either topic)? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:10, 18 September 2007 (UTC) :::Upper level winds are becoming evil. I'd say the chances are pretty long. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:44, 18 September 2007 (UTC) 10L.NONAME 93L.INVEST Woohoo! I get to call it! It's next to Florida and it looks menacing. I say 80% chance of tropical depression, 60% chance of tropical storm, and 10% chance hurricane. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 18:57, 18 September 2007 (UTC) :Whoa! This is MY turf! However, I welcome you. But seriously knock next time. 'Cyclone1(19:13 UTC -18/09/2007) ::Did I just talk to an invest? Oh, well, that's nothing out of the ordinary for me. Anyway, looks excellent! I'd say a Jerry is very possible. ''Cyclone1(19:13 UTC -18/09/2007) :::Jer-ry! Jer-ry! Jer-ry! (Sorry. Someone was going to do it, so I figured we'd all rather do away with it now). --65.94.12.69 19:37, 18 September 2007 (UTC) ::::I finally looked at a satellite image and WOW! I think we COULD see an upgrade by 5 or 11. The NHC doesn't want to mess around after Humberto. This storm is RIGHT off the coast (MY coast), and it's developing fast. 'Cyclone1(19:48 UTC -18/09/2007) This is just like Jerry in '95! And guess what? 1995 Felix had the same pressure as 2007 Felix! Dun, dun, duun! DUN-DUN! And it's OK to talk to clouds. Many people talk to plants (freaks! commies! OLLIE NORTH RIP-OFFS!) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 20:02, 18 September 2007 (UTC) :Dang, this one's near somebody I know. Also, some of the tracks lead this system to hit southern Louisiana, but I definitely see this thing forming into something soon. This one's a biggy too! :D - Enzo Aquarius 22:13, 18 September 2007 (UTC) ::This appears to be the only thing in the Atlantic worth watching right now and so far, I'm impressed. We'll see how it looks after it gets over Florida. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:43, 18 September 2007 (UTC) :::GFDL says tropical storm before Florida, and landfall near New Orleans as a Cat 1 storm, making landfall just to the east, almost in Alabama. Which is the worst possible place a storm could hit. The possibility just sends shivers down my spine... [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 01:02, 19 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Great. New Orleans. Oh, isn't that just lovely. Just what that (former) city needed. Given the way the system looks now, I think the GFDL is a little too aggressive. But even a tropical storm crossing the area wouldn't be a whole lot of fun. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:58, 19 September 2007 (UTC) GFDL takes it all the way to Oklahoma as a ts, after pulling an Erin! And I think it's going to go further south than that, maybe into the gulf, intensify, then on to the coast. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 10:31, 19 September 2007 (UTC) :I still don't see a hurricane out of this. It hasn't gotten any better organized since yesterday, which I expected seeing as it's going over Florida. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 13:54, 19 September 2007 (UTC) ::Vortex alert! A small, very visible low is off the coast of Melbourne, FL. Radar loop. Looks formidable. 'Cyclone1(18:38 UTC -19/09/2007) :::Yep, that is definitely rotation. CMC and GFDL see hurricanes, GFS sees a strong tropical storm, and HWRF is... being it's normal "this thing cannot possibly ever ever EVER form. Ever." self. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]]Talk 19:10, 19 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Could at least be a suptropical storm very soon. Bob rulz 19:22, 19 September 2007 (UTC) Look at it now! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 20:00, 19 September 2007 (UTC) :This is a pretty neat system indeed, and, as I said earlier, is quite big as well. Lots of people might feel the effects from this thing. - Enzo Aquarius 20:43, 19 September 2007 (UTC) ::GFS initializes off the east coast. This could be very intersting. If it flares up tonight off the coast of FL, school closings may need to be in order. *looks at Polk County School Board* AHEM! SCHOOL CLOSING MAY BE NEEDED! Cyclone1(21:41 UTC -19/09/2007) :::It's not fair! Not only might you not get school, but you might experience a tropical cyclone before it becomes damaging! Anything I'd get up here will wreak havoc on Washington and my house! But you're right. It is consolidation now. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 21:45, 19 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Still can't see a hurricane in those clouds. It has gotten a hair better organized over the past 24 hours, but hardly a change worth mentioning. Right now, I can't see this getting above 50 knots. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:17, 19 September 2007 (UTC) Depends on how it tracks in to the Gulf, which we have no idea about, which means none of us should predict any specific maximum intensity right now. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 22:24, 19 September 2007 (UTC) :Also, a fun fact, these are the absorbed remnants of Humberto. And it seems that there are several lows floating around right now. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 22:26, 19 September 2007 (UTC) ::Stupid remnants. --65.94.41.232 01:29, 20 September 2007 (UTC) :::"A low has formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico". Now we're getting somewhere. Perhaps the ball has started to roll. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 15:54, 20 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Complete consensus on one thing: Landfall as a TS where Katrina hit. If this does a Humberto, and gets PAST cat 1, the results could be disastrous. Luckily, that's a WCS, so it doesn't seem like MAJOR damage will come from this; however, a storm near New Orleans these days is a big threat. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:01, 20 September 2007 (UTC) STDS from NHC; it doesn't appear to be tropical yet though. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 20:31, 20 September 2007 (UTC) :Wow, nearly ALL models take this thing's remnants over MY house. GFDL is the scariest, allowing this thing to restrengthen over land and giving my house about 90kmph (55mph) max gusts. I know, it doesn't sound like much, but I'm a sucker for extratropical remnants. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:16, 20 September 2007 (UTC) :::P I've experienced a REAL TROPICAL STORM, Isabel. But it wasn't that exciting. This thing, however, is. Look at the TWO and you'll see what I mean. "Tropical development possible at any time." [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 22:03, 20 September 2007 (UTC) :::Actually, I experienced Isabel too, though only the extratropical remnants of one :P . 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:45, 20 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Holy crap this thing looks good; 30-35 mph max winds, 1005 hPa by Hunter aircraft; this thing could become a TD by 11! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:53, 21 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Now that this thing is in the gulf, and has quite noticeable rotation, we could finally have TD status today. Interesting note too, not even as a tropical storm has this system already done some damage with a couple of tornadoes. - Enzo Aquarius 12:46, 21 September 2007 (UTC) ::::::What is wrong with the GFDL??! It takes this storm stubbornly onto MY house as a tropical storm, and it won't quit this weird forecast no matter what! In fact, this model now takes this storm with as much as ~50kt winds, perhaps ~65kt gusts, which could be hurricane-force, right onto my house! What's worse, it's supposed to merge with a frontal system and give us severe thunderstorms! Why is it supposed to restrengthen??? Maybe it's just GFDL, but it doesn't give the storm an extratropical appearence when it hits my house! If GFDL has the correct model, this storm could be worse than Isabel of 2003! That's still not as bad as Hazel, though, so *phew*. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:48, 21 September 2007 (UTC) Subtropical Depression Ten Advisories started on NHC for SD10. --Patteroast 15:53, 21 September 2007 (UTC) :Possible tropical storm soon as well, could be by the next two or three advisories. We may have Jerry soon *Plays Seinfeld music* - Enzo Aquarius 16:51, 21 September 2007 (UTC) Tropical Depression Ten Fully tropical now. --Patteroast 17:57, 21 September 2007 (UTC) :Damnit! You stole my thunder! I hit save and got screwed. I hear the general plead coming from my southwest: "Please rain!" -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:01, 21 September 2007 (UTC) ::Here 'e is after all that time. This is Humberto 2, in more ways than one ; ). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 18:56, 21 September 2007 (UTC) :::Tropical eh? Neato. I'm surprised it formed that close to land. That doesn't seem very uncommon this year, though. 3 storms have done it so far. 'Cyclone1(19:18 UTC -21/09/2007) ::::Does anyone realize why I just said that? Ok, here's a history of Humby: ::::*Forms and makes landfall on Texas ::::*Gets absorbed by a frontal system ::::*Gets torn off of the frontal system in the Gulf Stream, and ::::*Eventually develops into 10L ::::Of course, it still isn't called Humby, because it was absorbed, but this is definitely a result of Humby. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]]Talk 19:30, 21 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Well, let's hope it doesn't pull an itself (intensification just before landfall).--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 23:31, 21 September 2007 (UTC) Inland and expected to dissipate. Let's all encourage it to do exactly that, and to not send any stray remnants or absorbed remnants back in the Atlantic. The last unnamed TD10 screwed us royally enough as it is. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 02:57, 22 September 2007 (UTC) :Hmm, I doubt this will even become a tropical storm. It's inland now, so unless it turns into the gulf, Jerry may have to wait. - Enzo Aquarius 02:58, 22 September 2007 (UTC) ::Jerry will have to wait. The only issue now is whether that TD10 dissipate completely or manage to have some of its remnants makes it back to water. Hightly unlikely, fortunately. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 03:35, 22 September 2007 (UTC) :::*kicks dirt* Didn't even get much rain. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:24, 22 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Look at this! The NHC issued a final advisory on TD Humberto AND TD 10! Either they're the same thing and that's the problem (doubt it), or someone's getting fired. Anyway, it's too bad, but there are some really cool other things going on; check them out if you can find them. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 11:08, 22 September 2007 (UTC) SW of Azores There appears to be a subtropical storm developing. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/mediterranean/sahara/ir/20070920.1530.msg2.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg -Winter123 (I cant find the login...) -128.205.161.88 16:34, 20 September 2007 (UTC) :Didn't see that one coming until yesterday. Surprised no-one else has put it up yet. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 18:58, 20 September 2007 (UTC) ::Up on the TWO. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 22:05, 20 September 2007 (UTC) :::I thought this one had a chance a couple of days ago, but now I'm thinking the storm missed that chance. Shear is increasing. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:23, 22 September 2007 (UTC) ::::The storm, however, is better than it's ever been. This is it's last and best chance for development. I say window closes by about 2 this afternoon. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 11:08, 22 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Wow! Looks pretty good now: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/vis-l.jpg. A nice little B.B of convection hugs the center. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:33, 22 September 2007 (UTC) 94L.INVEST AoI - Western Carribbean Been waiting for someone to mention this one... from the latest TWO: SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. --Patteroast 20:19, 21 September 2007 (UTC) :Wow. This system has parts of the AoI near Panama, the AoI near the south carribbean, as well as that thunderstorm near Maracaibo, all in one! Plus, it's chasing TD10, could head into the warmth of the gulf, and has a large convestive area! Could be one to watch. That's the storm that was supposed to give Ingrid a fujiwhara had it not dissipated. Even if it doesn't organise, it could still hit New Orleans. I know, New Orleans despreately needed a break after 2005. 2006 was its lucky break. We can only hope that 2007 won't be much worse. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:33, 21 September 2007 (UTC) ::I don't see much in the Caribbean worth talking about. I looked at the satellite and went 'Huh?' I thought I'd gotten a non-updated picture or something because there's nothing in the Caribbean except a few scattered showers milling around the western half. This thing isn't worth however many words I'm writing about it. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:20, 22 September 2007 (UTC) :::Actually, that's cool, because GOES's Atlantic wide view picture hasn't updated in almost a day (about 22 hours right now). This thing looks like it might develop sometime late next week, if ever. I say 30% it forms (which means it will form sometime today or tomorrow ; )). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 11:12, 22 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Better now, looks like a surface low is forming, but I don't improve my outlook. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 13:56, 22 September 2007 (UTC) 94L.INVEST Up on NRL. 'Cyclone1(14:53 UTC -22/09/2007) :Should've been paying attention (was trying to see how much better my tabby cat picture was than Wikipedia's. It's not FP level, but it's damn good.). It looks like pre-Erin to me. I guess I'll up the stakes a little, how about 40%? [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]]Talk 15:19, 22 September 2007 (UTC) ::This thing looks pretty good, quite visible rotation and pretty organized. All it needs is the eye of the NHC now. - Enzo Aquarius 15:48, 22 September 2007 (UTC) :::SHIPS up to 63 kts at the end of the run. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 16:24, 22 September 2007 (UTC) ::::It looks better than it did yesterday, but I'm still not all that impressed. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:27, 22 September 2007 (UTC) AoI - Southwest of Cape Verde Yes! I have defeated the mighty Patteroast! I am king! :P NHC says there's a low involved around here somewhere, and the convection looks pretty good, but it's too close to the equator to develop any time soon. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 13:56, 22 September 2007 (UTC) :Could happen. Shows a little organization. Sure looks better than 94L. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:30, 22 September 2007 (UTC) AoI - Northeast of French Guiana Disorganised tropical wave coming off Africa, up on the TWO. Surprisingly, CMC turns this thing into a hurricane heading for Nova Scotia. Any thoughts, people? 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:22, 22 September 2007 (UTC) :Crud, ANOTHER one? Jeez, September... I don't see it; could someone give me coordinates? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 15:31, 22 September 2007 (UTC) ::It's that line of showers at about 10N and 40W. Don't see much worth looking at here. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:34, 22 September 2007 (UTC) :::It's more to the west than that, about 55W. It looks kinda like pre-TD10, except pre-TD10 was likely to develop. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 18:23, 22 September 2007 (UTC) INVEST reports Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC) :Not as far as I know. Bob rulz 17:26, 16 August 2007 (UTC) Interesting models I don't know if this is important, but I found a very interesting Fujiwhara interaction on an eight day old CMC forecast. Link 68-100-190-56 16:25, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :Edit - If anyone finds any really interesting models, it could be interesting to group them here. Here's one of four cyclones forming (again from CMC): Link 68-100-190-56 16:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::Gotta love the CMC. Bob rulz 17:19, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :::The most recent one turns Dean into a cat 5. 68-100-190-56 18:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::I wouldn't rule that out. Bob rulz 18:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC) I would trust the CMC on that count at this point. 68-100-190-56 21:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC) Hmm... Sorry for the extra header, but we have plenty of them don't we? Anyway, there seems to be a (somewhat) consensus on the models that go out that far that in a few days, after this wave of Africa, we will have something tropical in nature. Check out the GFS and you'll see what I mean. Any ideas? IP 23:38, 29 August 2007 (UTC) Model predictions I remember last year seeing links to plots of model projections (on Wikipedia of course) for all invests. I can not seem to find the link, does anyone know what I'm talking about? -Runningonbrains 17:34, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Hmm... No, I don't remember that. What kind of format were they in? IP 18:16, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Model runs and Model plots. -- RattleMan 22:11, 31 August 2007 (UTC) Model sites Could some of you provide the model sites you use? It would be very helpful to quite a lot of us. Thanks, IP 23:34, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Here is a graphic model page that shows all the models at once. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_96.gif Just change the 96 in the URL to whatever the current invest is to see the model plots. 'Cyclone1(00:56 UTC -31/08/2007) ::Thanks. I've been there before, but frankly, I had no idea what it was ^-^' IP 01:16, 31 August 2007 (UTC) 2 Cat5 no other hurricanes Fourth time we have had two Cat 5 hurricanes in a season. This is the first of these where we haven't had an earlier hurricane of another category. This seems pretty weird. If you start looking for things like this, you probably find them nevertheless it still seems weird. crandles 81.86.39.6 12:02, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :1958 1977 1980 1992 had a category 5 as first hurricane of season so probably not all that weird. crandles 81.86.39.6 12:19, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::What probability would you put on it? If first hurricane of season being cat5 is a 1 in ten chance (5 times in 57 years from 1950 when records become reasonable) and there is also a 1 in 10 chance of a second cat 5 in a season (4th time since 1950) then perhaps a 1 in 4 chance (happened in 1960 not in other 2 years / 4 occasions) of no hurricanes between two cat 5 hurricanes. Is 1 in 400 years a reasonable assessment of how unusual? crandles 81.86.39.6 12:51, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::If there's a 1/10 chance of the first hurricane being a cat5 and a 1/10 chance of the second hurricane being a cat5 that means there's a 1/100 chance of the first two hurricanes being cat5. Pretty simple eh. But that's not a large enough sample set to make any kind of judgement on. Surely climatology and the favorable environment in the caribbean while there's an unfavorable environment elsewhere is more to blame. 66.243.195.90 16:59, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Both of you are somewhat incorrect, there has never been a statistical observation of two category fives forming one after another with only one storm in between (in the Atlantic basin) (Ethel was '''NOT a cat 5, and it shouldn't be considered one), thus raw statistics cannot be used to predict the probability of the event. That's pretty scary though. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 17:53, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Discounting Ethel in 1960, this is the first time the first two hurricanes of the season were Category 5's. Another excuse for me to talk about just how amazing the West Pacific is: In 1997, that basin had three consecutive storms with winds of at least 180 mph! Man, I love that place! -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:20, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Then why don't you go live there? ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:27, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :I may well be wrong about Ethel but if so, should List_of_notable_Atlantic_hurricanes#Category_5_hurricanes and Hurricane_Ethel_%281960%29 be edited? :I don't expect my estimate of the odds to be perfect - odds depend on your subjective Bayesian priors. Yes the past isn't necessarily a guide to the future and all that. However it should be possible to make a subjective estimate of the odds and what else are you going to base it on? If there's a 1/10 chance of the first hurricane being a cat5 and a 1/10 chance of the second hurricane being a cat5 that means there's a 1/100 chance of the first two hurricanes being cat5. Pretty simple eh. :Possibly but also possibly wrong. If they are independent yes but there is the possibility that there is an relationship that makes this untrue. What does the data indicate? 24 Cat 5s in 57 years occuring independently would mean an expectation of ~6 years from 1950 with two cat 5 but we have only had 3. Maybe this is just chance or maybe there is a relationship that makes them unlikely to occur in same year/close to one another. A more important question might be whether the answer is changing with time due to global warming. My estimate could be a long way out. :Re "raw statistics cannot be used to predict the probability of the event" they cannot be used to calculate the odds with confidence but if you accept there is going to be huge error margins and still want to try then the raw data may still help - what else you are going to use? - a weather/climate model perhaps but you are still going to need to use the data to see if your model is plausible. crandles 88.105.72.76 22:53, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::In a chaotic system like weather, there is no way to predict long term trends on a mesoscale level. Weather forecasts beyond 15 days tend to be unreliable and at 30 days they have no meaning whatsoever. The facts are that there is no way. Plus, this entire chain of reasoning is flawed because there are fluctuations of factors on many levels, from 10 years to hundreds of years. And Ethel was officially a category five, but the results are so dubious that I consider it impossible. But why argue? The facts are that the chances of this are pretty darned small, because it's never happened before. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:33, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Well I think I agree the chain of reasoning here is flawed and we are certainly never going to reach a decision on what the odds are. 'Pretty darn small' is as close as we might get. This crazy odds stuff was intended as a bit of fun. If however we were talking about total hurrince numbers then I would say you are protesting too much - weather forcasting beyond 15/30 days is impossible but that does not mean that climate forecasting is impossible. That would be like saying because I cannot predict the value of the next roll od a fair dice then I cannot predict the total of 1000 dice rolls will be close to 3500. "many levels, from 10 years to hundreds of years" - I can only assume you are implying AMO. The evidence for this is weak compared the evidence for the effect of global warming. AMO possibly does better at explaining hurricane numbers than global warming but if there is better evidence for global warming then it becomes more likely that it is a combination of global warming plus some other effects - perhaps things like deforrestation of Africa causing more dust storms. It is not easy to do attribution but it isn't impossible either. crandles 81.86.39.6 11:32, 4 September 2007 (UTC) Two cat5s at landfall without other category hurricanes wow the odds of that are somewhat lower. crandles 81.86.39.6 12:40, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :(Create an account, Randles, we'd love to have you.)2007 is now also the first year to see a hurricane make landfall from both oceans on the same day during the past half century. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:36, 5 September 2007 (UTC) ::June 2, Barry and Barbara. (TS) September 5. Felix and Henriette. (H) Both sets hit North America on the same day as each other. 'Cyclone1(22:24 UTC -5/09/2007) :::I thought he was referring to the fourth! (Henriette made landfall on Baja). That's really something though. Suppose this is a real record breaker in twos. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 22:32, 5 September 2007 (UTC) ::::According to NHC, the center of Barry didn't officially make landfall until it was a tropical depression. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 14:21, 6 September 2007 (UTC) "Discounting Ethel in 1960, this is the first time the first two hurricanes of the season were Category 5's." Even if we DID count Ethel as a Category 5, regardless of accuracy, Abby and Cleo were the first two hurricanes of 1960 and not Donna and Ethel, so 1960 didn't have the first two hurricanes as Category 5s, just the first season where two consecutive named storms were Category 5s. Jake52 My talk 18:06, 8 September 2007 (UTC) :A well put point. How many records (or other notable circumstances) do we have so far? Add to the list and sign if you can - *As stated by Cyclone1, the first time that on two different occasions two storms in both hurricane basins made landfall on the same day *The first time that two cat 5 landfalls have occurred in one season *Only the fourth (third) time two cat fives have formed in one season *Discounting Ethel, the first time cat five storms have been separated by less than four storms (four storm difference occurring between Wilma and Rita) *The first time that the first two hurricanes of a season were cat fives *The quickest TD-cat 5 intensification on record in ''any basin (Felix) *The third fastest 24-hour intensification in any basin (also Felix) *The ninth most intense Atlantic hurricane ever (Dean) *I believe only the second time that two cat 5s have followed in extraordinarily close tracks (2005 having Katrina and Rita) :Any more? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:32, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::I don't think that this was the first year we've seen two storms of any strength make landfall from both basins on the same day, but I do believe it was the first time both storms were hurricanes. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:28, 8 September 2007 (UTC) :::Sorry, meant to fix that, it's the only time when one of the events involved two hurricanes. I still think that Barry could well have been a tropical storm (40 mph) at landfall though. Even so, with or without the hurricane note, there is the fact that if it's happened before, it probably only happened once or twice :P. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:52, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::::It's rare, I'll give you that. That I don't think is disputable. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:45, 9 September 2007 (UTC) This year so far seems to be an "all or nothing" year: either it goes to Cat 5 (and having two storms go Cat 5 in the space of two weeks is impressive enough) or it doesn't make it to Cat 1. The only other time I have seen something similar is the 1984 season before September 23, in which there were two Cat 4s and the rest fizzled out. But the "second half" of the season changed that with Hortense. 147.70.242.40 20:22, 12 September 2007 (UTC) :I take it back... a little. There was only Diana before Hortense broke the string. 147.70.242.40 20:26, 12 September 2007 (UTC) Just wondering, but if Ingrid forms from TD8, wouldn't that make 2007's season the first season where the number/name system got screwed up? (8th Depression=Ingrid and 9th Depression=Humberto) Jake52 My talk 02:57, 13 September 2007 (UTC) (EDIT: The first Atlantic season, I mean. I believe something similar occured with Dalila and Erick in 2001 Pacific.) :Decidedly not. In fact, it has happened several times. The first that pops into my brain is Inga and Jenny in 1961. The depression that became Jenny formed a full four days before Inga formed. In 1980, ''two storms (Earl and Frances) formed before the depression that became Georges got a name. Those are just two that come to mind. There are unquestionably others. (EDIT: Also, in 1979 during post-analysis of Hurricane Frederic, it was found it had become a tropical storm six hours before Tropical Storm Elena did.) -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:26, 13 September 2007 (UTC) Tracking Sites Curious question for you all, what website do you use to track hurricanes, like sites or programs that display cloud cover (to find those AoLs you post) or radar? - Enzo Aquarius 20:02, 13 September 2007 (UTC) :I use a runner system for NCEP provided models, as well as others, located here, and I also know of a place listed under a similar section a few sections up that Cyclone1 provided. Another place to look is weatherunderground, which compiles tracking models and SHIPS intensity model, as well as a special GFDL runner that shows local cloud cover. Also, the loops on the SSD (look at satellites under get storm info on the NHC) can be very helpful. Look for anything that could become tropical in the models, and you'll find whatever's out there. Good luck with that! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 20:39, 13 September 2007 (UTC) ::I use the National Hurricane Center's website. It's hard to get more official than that. They have a trove of cool stuff. Satellite in a myriad of forms (Visible, 4 different IRs, rainfall imagery, sea surface temperatures, and surface winds) There are six storm-specific "floaters" (four in the Atlantic and two in the Eastern Pacific) and six different views of the Atlantic all updated every half hour. They also have 5 different views of the Pacific updated every half hour. If that somehow isn't enough, they have links to other sites that have extensive satellite imagery. You can get still images or loops and radar images and loops from dozens of stations across the nation from Alaska to Miami. Cuba, Puerto Rico, Guam. Their advisory postings are up to the minute. You can watch each storm's every breathing minute. Everything is right there for you. I wouldn't hinge my faith on any other place. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:54, 13 September 2007 (UTC) :::Much appreciated! Thanks a bunch! :) - Enzo Aquarius 02:16, 14 September 2007 (UTC) Retirements At A Glance It's currently peak season for the Atlantic and we've had storms from Andrea to Ingrid. My question is simple: What names do you think may stand a chance of retirement thus far? My speculation and chances are: *Andrea: 5%. May storm. Minimal damage, but indirectly responsible for 6 deaths. *Barry: 2%. Little damage and killed fewer than Andrea, although one death was direct. *Chantal: 5%. Almost completely forgettable while tropical. *Dean: 95%. Smashed Jamaica and killed 40+ total. *Erin: 20%. Added to already major flooding problem. 18 total deaths, half direct. Klaus-like. *Felix: 90%. Over 100 deaths in Nicaragua. Severe damage likely. *Gabrielle: 5%. Forgettable. *Humberto: 30%. Only one death, but going by USD values at the time of the hurricane, surpassed Diane and Lili in terms of damage, and both of these were retired. Outside shot at retirement. *Ingrid: 0%. Want to talk about your duds? So overall, I think the retirements for this year will definently include Dean and Felix. Erin may also get retired if the monetary damages from it are high enough when released and Humberto may get retired if the current estimates are correct. Any other ideas or opinions? Jake52 My island 02:08, 15 September 2007 (UTC) : I say Dean and Felix will definitely get the boot. Anything else thus far is extremely doubtful to no retirement period. - Enzo Aquarius 04:32, 15 September 2007 (UTC) ::I say Dean 75% (there have been much, much worse) and Felix 70% (same reason). Humberto 15%, Erin 9%, the others I don't see getting retired in a million years. If you want, I will say that these a wee bit conservative, and I do hope that Felix is retired, Dean maybe (since those were the nicest SOB storms I've ever followed in this basin, maybe scratch Wilma). All four of these could be conceivably retired, but I put the chances of all four at around zero. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 11:35, 15 September 2007 (UTC) :::I think Felix has a better chance of getting retired than Dean. To be clear, I think both should be retired, but Felix is Nicaragua's worst hurricane since Joan in 1988. I rank deaths higher than damage because deaths have a greater psycological impact than damage. Retirement is based on the impact it had on a society as a whole. I believe that storms with high death tolls have a greater impact on a culture than those with just high damage. This is why the non-retirement of Hurricane Gordon infuriated me to a greater extent than most people. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:17, 15 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Just like Megadeth trying to get over Jethro Tull winning the "Heavy Metal" Grammy over them, eh? Anyway, being Cat 5 does not guarantee a retirement (see Emily; the Cleo that got the name retired was not a Cat 5 but a Cat 4 that did some damage afterward). Felix ''will be retired, and right now I'd say that Humberto is slightly more likely to be retired than Dean (if Jamaica doesn't nominate Dean for retirement, see it in 2013!). 147.70.236.93 21:18, 15 September 2007 (UTC) I never consider deaths particularly important unless they total above 300. In the case of storms like Mitch, non-retirement is not an issue, on the other hand, storms like Wilma are also guaranteed to be retired. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 21:23, 15 September 2007 (UTC) :About Jamaica and Dean's chances, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it Jamaica and not Mexico that got Gilbert canned? What I find stunning is that this season seems like a mock-up 1988 when it comes to the likely candidates for retirement. Dean was a Gilbert imitator (though not as powerful) and Felix resembled Joan (though so far not as deadly, but more powerful, plus Joan survived Central America). Jake52 My island 22:29, 15 September 2007 (UTC) ::I'd say Felix will be retired. It killed over 100 people. Dean I'd say there's about a 75% chance. I think the only other storm that really has a chance to be retired is Erin, but that's not likely. What did Humberto do to get retired? I don't see it. Bob rulz 22:46, 15 September 2007 (UTC) :::Gilbert killed over 300 people in Mexico, I think that kinda sealed that deal Jamaica just was a little icing on the cake. The WMO started using drugs in the early 1990's. They retired Klaus, which killed four people and then they didn't retire Tropical Storm Bret in 1993 which killed 122 people in Venezuela, nor did they retire Gert, which killed 70-90 in Mexico. Then the whole Gordon thing in 1994 which is inexcusable. Gordon was nothing short of an outrage. Period. Other than those, the only other blatent non-retirement I can think of was 1955's Hilda. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:46, 16 September 2007 (UTC) ::::You always talk about Gordon dontchya? That was kind of a large blunder on their part. I think it has to do with being a very weak storm at that stage. It's almost like Jeanne (although she was retired). I hold my estimates, though, and plus or minus ten is applicable to Dean and Felix. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:59, 16 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Yeah, I lost a significant amount of respect for the WMO after I heard about Gordon and you bring up a good point about the intensity. I think Bret wasn't retired for the same reason. I think it took the Allison disaster to make the WMO realize that a tropical storm could actually do significant damage and that it wasn't just negligence. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:55, 16 September 2007 (UTC) We're lucky something like that hasn't happened again. There might actually be a third hit around there; a lot of models are predicting something to go through there. This is a really sucky year weather-wise. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:10, 16 September 2007 (UTC) :Third hit where? -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:38, 16 September 2007 (UTC) ::You guys are wrong about Chantal, BTW IMO. It caused around 5 million dollars in damage in the area around Placentia Bay. Its residents are still angry the government didn't do enough. So it's not entirely forgettable. Thus, I give it a 3% chance. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:00, 17 September 2007 (UTC) :::"Storm does less damage than Bill Gates does annually! Global crisis at hand!" WMO does NOT have enough money for all that crack. Third hit Texas. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:28, 17 September 2007 (UTC) Keep in mind that the WMO can't retire a hurricane if no affected country nominate it for retirement, IIRC. I believe I heard Mexico was pretty poor on nominating...--132.211.210.107 23:07, 18 September 2007 (UTC) :Gert in 1993 was not nominated. Not sure about Bret. Gordon ''was nominated. Hurricane Klaus was nominated not by the U.S, but by Guadalupe. There was supposedly some damage to historic structures there but I don't really know the reasoning behind its nomination. Several Pacific retirements are a mystery too (Knut, Iva, Fefa, Fico). -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 23:50, 18 September 2007 (UTC)